Governorship polls and the candidates’ chances of victory

BY KENNETH JUDE

If President Goodluck  Ebele Jonathan had  defeated General Muhammadu Buhari in the presidential election on March 28, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Akwa Ibom state, political analysts say the party would have gone to the polls already basking in the euphoria of victory but that huge confidence has seemingly slackened with the change of baton in Aso Rock. This, in the other hand, does not mean the party’s structure has been ruptured. They are still intact but things may change drastically with the clear knowledge that if its candidate, Elder Udom Emmanuel wins, the party will be an opposition fold in the next four years or more. 

 

Those opposed to the PDP are of the view that there’s no way Akwa Ibom can succeed politically as an opposition state, maintaining  that as a civil service entity, it will be a political suicide to embrace the PDP at this crucial time. But while the APC is basking in the belief that it will win the governorship polls with their party now controlling proceedings from Abuja, the PDP in the state is also luxuriating in the firm belief that Akwa Ibom is a core PDP state hence it can’t surrender it to any other party. The standard bearer of the party, Udom Emmanuel is a private sector expert from the financial sector. He is fresh, cerebral and is brimming with new ideas. His candidacy has been embattled since what political analysts say is the dubious and fraudulent way he emerged as the party’s standard bearer. 

The December 8  nomination exercise that produced him as candidate of the PDP was marred by gross irregularities which led to other 22 aspirants staging a walkout from the venue. Their pleas for justice did not see the light of day as the party failed to intervene; an act, observers say was orchestrated by Governor Godswill Akpabio.

To date, that has been the Onna born banker’s undoing as many consider him to be Akpabio’s mask of a third term bid. This, the governor has denied. Udom has also been accused of coming in to cover Akpabio’s tracks hence his forced imposition on the people.  While the people were yet to come to terms with his aspiration, Governor Akpabio, in a fit of his usual braggadocio remarked that it was his wife, Ekaette Unoma Akpabio that discovered Udom Emmanuel.

To the people of  Akwa Ibom  state, it was a big slight on them. They argued that a woman has no such powers to choose a governor for them.  

In all, Udom Emmanuel is looking to ride on the back of Governor Akpabio to win the election since PDP is still strong as far as the state is concerned. But, it may no longer be business as usual with the influence of Governor Akpabio clearly whittled with the loss of President Goodluck Jonathan. Whichever way one views the situation, the race is tight and barring any plot to rig the polls by the PDP as alleged in many quarters, Udom may find it rough to win come Saturday, April 11. 

Udom is expected  to win in Ikot  Ekpene and get a slice of votes from Eket. He may not win in Uyo and Oron, that is, if events in the state political circuit are anything to go by and if the polls are free and fair. Udom Emmanuel is a good candidate that possesses the needed mastery to turn the state into a hub of industrialisation. Udom is favoured by the zoning arrangement in the state.

Another strong contender to the number one seat in the state is Obong Umana Okon Umana. He is from Nsit Ubium in Uyo Senatorial district and he is not favoured by the zoning arrangement in the state. But his ambition has received backing from some notable politicians in the state like the former Governor of the state Arch Obong Victor Attah, Atuekong Don Etiebet, Otuekong Sunny Jackson amongst others. While none of these respect ted men have denied that there’s an existing zoning formula that should be followed, their grouse rest with the fact that Governor Akpabio has arrogated the state to himself and family and also connived with top echelons of the PDP to subvert the wishes of the people who gave their nod to the massive rigging and gross bastardisation of the guidelines for conducting primary elections.

Attah, at various  fora have had  cause to state in emphatic terms that zoning is sacrosanct in a democratic setting but that due to some other compelling determinants, the state needs more than zoning to thrive at this material time. The candidate of the APC, UOU is a formidable candidate any day though this is his first time of testing his popularity in the shape of elections, his supporters are fired up by his rich political background which got another fillip when their party won the presidential election some weeks back.  

Umana Okon  Umana was Director of  Budget and later Commissioner for Finance in Obong Attah’s administration having rose from the civil service. He was the Secretary to the State Government under the present administration before losing his job in a commando style. Be that as it may, the erudite gentleman is riding high in confidence as he believes that the rebellion from the people against the PDP will play in his favour. Umana is experienced and his confidence has been bolstered by his party’s victory at the federal level.

He won’t find it easy to win the contest but on a level ground, he stands shoulder to shoulder with other candidates. UOU is poised to sweep the votes in Uyo senatorial district but the popularity of Obong Bassey Albert may prove a stumbling block here. He is also expected to win landslide in Oro where his running mate hails from but it will be tough for him in Eket and Ikot Ekpene senatorial districts respectively.

Bishop Samuel Akpan may be seen as an outsider in this race especially with unconfirmed rumours having it that he has surrendered his bid to Udom Emmanuel. Bishop Akpan is a mobiliser par excellence. His leadership acumen came to the fore during the re-election bid of Chief Godswill Akpabio in 2011 where he used his group, Akwa Ibom Peoples Forum (AKPF) to mobilise support for the Ukana born politician. According to Bishop Sam Akpan, there was a pact between him and Governor Akpabio to the effect that the Governor Will hand over to him when his tenure winds down but that pact, he says was broken by the governor. Both of them went their separate ways which ultimately put paid to their earlier agreement. As it is now, Bishop Samuel Akpan is banking on his popularity amongst those he led to vote for Governor Akpabio in 2011 and also unalloyed support from members of his church.

He is from Onna and it is believed that he will split votes with Udom since both of them are from the same area. His party, Accord Party (APC) is seen as not being on ground but the clergy cum politician is undaunted by such sentiments as he is going about with so much finesse with the belief that the people of Akwa Ibom state will vote for him going by his antecedents. Aside from his confidence to win the election, he is genuinely loved by his supporters, at least if the turnout at his campaigns are anything to go by.  He is poised to have some votes in both Eket and Ikot Ekpene Senatorial districts respectively while Oron and Uyo will be a bit patchy for him. On the whole, he should not be written off.

The last but not the least in the line up  is Senator Helen Esuene of the Labour Party (LP). Her running mate is Mr. David Okpon, both of whom were part of the famous G22. The one term Senator enjoys a cult-like followership in the state especially Eket Senatorial district where she hails from. Her supporters are die-hards and it is almost impossible to unravel where they draw their optimism from. Senator Helen Esuene is one woman described as always keeping to her promises. 

Those in the know  say that her word   is always her bond. To buttress their position, they say that she promised to do only one term in the Red chambers and kept her promise.  Another thing she has going for her is that the women of Akwa Ibom have vowed to queue behind one of their own. With that in mind, other male contestants may have some turbulent time since the women, in all sincerity, constitute the highest voting population in all elections. This will also be a plus for her aspiration.

She has also promised to do one term as governor but there are doubts from political analysts that if she wins, it will be difficult if not impossible for her to keep to her word of doing just a term. The belief is that being a governor is a different ball game. While Senator Esuene may be seen as an outsider in the race with some sentiments bordering on her gender, it will be foolhardy for any discerning mind to write her off as she is one politician that has been on ground and enjoys a massive followership in the state. She will no doubt sweep majority of the votes in Eket Senatorial district while she may find it rough in Ikot Ekpene. Both Oro and Uyo may not really favour her but then in a contest, never say never until the final whistle. She can always spring surprises by braving the odds to post a remarkable performance on Saturday.