Two important incidents took place in two separate locations last Saturday, but each of these events left on the sands of time far-reaching lessons for us as a people bound by a common national geographical entity.
On that fateful Saturday, far away in Brazil, Nigeria’s Male National football team, the Super Eagles, against widespread expectations defeated the Bosnia and Herzegovinian team in a game that ended in 1-0 score line. Prior to that impressive outing by the Super Eagles, the eagles had come under a heavy criticism and tongue-lashing visited on them by a greater percentage of Nigerians.
The tongue-lashing which was closely followed with the invention of a new campaign identified by the hash tag #BRINGBACKOURBOYS, trended on social media micro-blogging site Twitter and even Facebook to capture the sentiments of fans over the previous performance of the Keshi-managed team when they locked horns with Iran.
In apparent reaction to the verbal and written salvos on the team’s seemingly lackluster performance, the Super Eagles Head coach Stephen Keshi is alleged to have attributed the perceived jaded performance of the boys to the disobedience on the part of some key players in the team, whom he said did not play according to instructions. But in a manner that shocked the world and even critics, the team made a record-setting comeback when they met with Bosnia. At present, the Super Eagles is said to be the only team in the world cup tournament that is yet to concede any goal!
Talk about Surprise!
That same Saturday, late in the evening, results of the gubernatorial elections in one of Nigeria’s South Western states, Ekiti, began to trickle in. The Ekiti Elections had a huge significance to us as a people in many ways. First, it was to serve as one of the indices of measuring the capability of the country’s apex electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in living up to its envisaged responsibility of conducting free, fair and credible elections in the country, in preparation to the 2015 general elections.
Also, it also provided a barometer, as it were, to political parties to make some valid deductions or gauge the level of their acceptability (expressed in terms of the performance of their candidates) at the polls. In addition, the Saturday’s polls also laid itself as a case study at the feet of every politician, especially those aspiring to hold one position or another in future elections in this country, irrespective of geographical zone, to draw a lesson or two which will help them put their best forward when the time is nigh.
Although a number of political parties fielded candidates for the elections, the contest was among the candidates of the All Progressive Congress, APC, Kayode Fayemi, who incidentally is the incumbent governor, that of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Ayo Fayose, and the Labour Party candidate, Opeyemi Bamidele.
Prior to the Saturday’s day of reckoning, a lot intrigues played up, giving political pundits and trend-spotters some valuable data on which to base their deductions on.
First, some chieftains of the two leading parties, the PDP and the APC found their way to Ekiti state for the purposes of selling their candidates to the electorates. Their visit did not fail to drag along some controversies. First, when the Peoples Democratic Party visited, President Jonathan is credited to have said that he will develop Ekiti if Fayose wins. This statement was perceived by the opposition in bad faith. Then we heard that Rivers state Governor Rotimi Amaechi , his Edo state Counterpart, Adams Oshiomole, and that of Kano, Rabiu Kwankwaso were barred from entering Ekiti state by security operatives.
And as one would expect, the leadership of the All Progressive Congress and those sympathetic to the party, saw the two incidents as an opportunity to issue serial statements meant to berate the PDP while accusing the powers that be of trying to strangle their chances of emerging victorious at the polls.
Then came the Rice wars! News filtered in that the candidates of the leading parties had distributed bags of rice as kickbacks, in a bid to tilt the voting behaviours of the electorates to their favour.
On Sunday morning, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC came out with the result, declaring the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Mr Ayodele Fayose as winner of the polls.
This outcome came as a surprise to many as quite a number of political pundits and trend watchers were expecting a result that will be tipped in favour of the incumbent, even when an incumbent governor has not won a second term in Ekiti since 1999. But why did Fayose win the elections?
One of the election observers who happens to be My friend, Adekunle Adeyemi, and has lived in Ekiti for a greater part of his life told me that one important factor that the Governor-elect had going for him was his near-homogeneity with people. Adekunle told me over the phone that even after Fayose left office as a Governor, he did a fine job of shielding himself against being bitten by the bug that makes politicians see their communities, or states as a forbidden place of abode, soon after leaving office.
Although he was a former Governor, Fayose didn’t move to Abuja after leaving office He is said to have lived in Ekiti (and the reason is not hard to figure…He saw living there as a window for constantly connecting with the people). In fact, in order to bolster his point on the level of connect that Ayo Fayose had with the people, my friend told me “Guy, That Fayose dey stop for road waka commot for him car buy banana ooo! Something common House of Assembly members no fit do because of nonsense formings” In the field of human psychology, it has been proven that trust is easily built when there are perceived traces of homogeneity. Governor Fayemi was on the other hand aloof, creating a barricade between himself and the people. Analyst said he ran an elitist government. It follows logically that Fayemi was banking on the perceived goodwill he enjoys from the leadership of his party while convincing himself repeatedly that the people did not matter.
Another thing is this: the electorates are not stupid! They can read intentions and given the opportunity will base their voting behaviours on the meanings they have attached to the underlying intentions driving the actions of the candidates. The Rice wars buttress this fact succinctly! When the battle line for the rice wars was drawn, two of the major candidates, Ayo Fayose and Kayode Fayemi made every effort to give each other a run for their money. Fayose brought rice.
Fayemi also brought rice. To the electorates, the brand and the quantity were inconsequential. What mattered to the electorates was the underpinning intent behind the gifts. It is widely held that even when he also gave out the rice, Governor Fayemi did not do so out of the genuine interest of the people but as a way of squaring up Ayo Fayose in the rice wars. However, it appears that Fayose’s intention of distributing the rice to the electorate was driven by a seemingly genuine interest…and the people were swayed by this! He achieved the envisaged purpose.
Another lesson that I picked as a trend spotter was the fact that elections are not won on the media. Before the results began to trickle in, the APC seem to have won the election in Ekiti on the pages of newspapers and social media platforms. In fact, if this were to be the only factor, the PDP would have had a dismal outing. The APC were firing salvo after salvo at the slightest provocation, with the intent of painting the PDP black in the minds of the electorates. But the PDP were not deterred by this. They kept forging ahead with trying to consult widely and proving the APC wrong through their actions. While the APC was busy talking, the PDP was walking their talk.
In light of the foregoing, what lessons should gubernatorial aspirants in Akwa Ibom state pick from the just concluded polls?
Unlike the situation in Ekiti state where the final verdict of the people was passed at the general elections, in Akwa Ibom state the primaries of the Peoples Democratic Party will have far-reaching influence on the overall direction of the governorship contest. This is understandably so as my analyses of past elections pattern in the state (except for the 2011 governorship elections where there was a slight deviation from the regular pattern) have shown that after the PDP primaries, there is usually a bandwagon pattern of voting.
At present, indications are rife that the governorship contest in the state will between the PDP and the PDP. Any other arrangement will be a product of an afterthought! That perhaps explains why the APC in the state has been in a seemingly state of inertia. One can hazard a guess into why the APC in Akwa Ibom exist in that state. It appears that the party might be waiting to field candidates who are denied tickets in the PDP. Of course, this could be hazardous. Reason being that the APC might not have the needed time to put its house in order and come out with a good gut to slug it out with the PDP.
Given the peculiar nature of the Akwa Ibom state political terrain, it behooves on aspirants to strive to ensure that they brighten their chances in the primary election which is just a few months away.
But how can they achieve this? First, like Ayo Fayose did, they should try as much as possible to attain the status of homogeneity, with first the delegates who will vote at the Primary election and then the general electorates. Nothing will build trust faster as the surprise in which an aspirant will throw at a delegate by meeting such a delegate in his home or favourite hangout, and having a great conversation with him. This connect is priceless and have some high resistance to money-inducements. Convening a meeting of prospective delegates at once will make an impact, but not as effective as meeting them one after the other. Agreed it will be time consuming! But the time spent will be nothing compared to the joy of victory. Dear aspirants, the delegates are waiting! The electorates are also waiting. Who will be the first aspirant to come down to the level of the delegates and the electorates? Who will be the first aspirant to begin a tour of churches to worship with the electorates in a bid to connect with them? Yes thank me later.
Second, in the same manner the electorates proved to the candidates in the just concluded elections, delegates will prove to the candidates during the primaries that they are not stupid! Per chance, the electorates may re-echo the same message in the general elections. Truth is the delegates and the general electorates are silently studying the aspirants. They are reading remote and immediate meanings into their actions and inactions. When the time comes, these meanings will form the foothold of their decisions. Have we forgotten the recurring scenarios where delegates had to receive whatever inducement from a particular candidate and still went ahead to vote for the candidate of their choice?
Third, having a strong forte in the act of rabble-rousing and propaganda has never translated to victories at the polls and the 2015 gubernatorial elections will not be an exception to the rule. One would expect that all aspirants will have their noses to the grind in a bid to evolve foolproof strategies that will help them emerge victorious, but some aspirants would rather prefer to maintain and ubiquitous presence in the media. The media has always been a contributory factor and not the sole factor in itself in the task of winning the support of the electorates. Several scientific studies have proven this.
By way of wrapping this up, I must say that the 2015 gubernatorial elections in Akwa Ibom state will go down in history as one of the elections with an outcome that will shock a lot of people. For aspirants, time is ticking away…faster!
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